Current Real Estate Market

[wander]

When inflation kicks into high gear,and it will soon, I am afraid that a six pack of Budweiser will cost about $200.00. That will be a true tragedy.

[Kerry]

What the heck was I thinking????????  Here I was concentrating on buying gold when I should have thought about buttwiper!  You're right, what a perfect coin of the realm!!!  Especially with my fishin buddies!!! Once they run out, I'll have a monopoly, I'll corner the market, I'll be the wealthiest guy on the treasure coast!!!

[Carl]

Too late. I panicked and drank it all.

[Kerry]

 

[Kerry]

http://cosmos.bcst.yahoo.com/up/player/popup/?rn=3906861&cl=13325340&ch=4226714&src=news

[Lil B]

Port St. Lucie Makes List of Cities with Worst Foreclosure Rate in The Country
 
October 28, 2009
CNNmoney.com

NEW YORK  -- While foreclosure rates are easing in some of the hardest-hit cities, the crisis is beginning to expand into new metro areas.

On Wednesday, RealtyTrac released its list of cities with the biggest foreclosure problems during the third quarter. As expected, towns in California, Florida and Nevada dominated the top 10, with Las Vegas taking the top spot with a rate of 1 in 20 homes. That's a 53% increase over the third quarter 2008.

But there was a bright spot: Half of the cities in the top 10 showed year-over-year declines in their foreclosure rates, and 60% showed improvement compared with the second quarter.

For example, second place Merced, Calif., saw foreclosures fall by 11% from last year and 13% from last quarter, to 1 out of every 27 homes. And Stockton, Calif., slipped to No. 4 from No. 2 last quarter. The city, which is 80 miles east of San Francisco, had ranked highest for all of 2008.

"We're not sure if that will be a one-time thing or a true continued trend, but it's one of the first positive signs we've seen," said Rick Sharga, a senior vice president at RealtyTrac.

New hotspots. But if Las Vegas was the big loser, its neighbor, Reno, Nev., was hot on its heels. The No. 9 city posted an 80% gain in foreclosures -- 1 in 37 homes -- compared to the third quarter of last year. And it's just one of several smaller metro areas that are creeping their way up RealtyTrac's foreclosure list.

"Foreclosure activity is spreading from primary cities into secondary areas," said Sharga. "These aren't your LAs and Phoenixes -- it's moving into outlying regions."

Boise, Idaho, cracked the top 20 for the first time as foreclosures jumped 141% -- the largest increase from 2008. Similarly, Provo, Utah, rose 120%.

The pair of cities "are the first two cases where areas with very high unemployment are breaking into the top spots," Sharga said. "That will continue over the next few months."

Outlook. "The fact is, we're still seeing record levels of foreclosure activity," said Sharga, who doesn't expect rates will peak until 2010 because many option-ARMs will reset over the next several months.

Still, the housing market seems to be adjusting, because home prices are stabilizing -- albeit at a lower level, Sharga said.

A record number of properties "are coming down the foreclosure pipeline" as well, Sharga said, and they will be trickling into the housing market over the next four years.

"We expect a longer, less robust recovery for the housing market," Sharga said. "We won't know what's what until everything gets worked out of the system."

Rank   Metro area   Foreclosure rate (One in X homes)   Change from 3Q 2008
1  Las Vegas  20  +53.6%
2  Merced, Calif.  27  -11.1%
3  Cape Coral, Fla.  27  -2.2%
4  Stockton, Calif.  28  -3.1%
5  Modesto, Calif.  30  -0.12%
6  Riverside, Calif.  30  +11.8%
7  Bakersfield, Calif.  35  +14.3%
8  Vallejo, Calif.  35  -3.4%
9  Reno, Nev.  37  +80.4%
10  Port St. Lucie, Fla.  38  +40.1%

Source: RealtyTrac
http://www.cbs12.com/articles/york-4722103-makes-cities.html

[Lil B]

Florida Jumps to No. 2 Spot for Number of foreclosures; Bucks National Trend

By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
Dec. 10, 2009

Home sales are up, home inventory is down, prices are stabilizing, and for many real estate watchers it appears the market has spent the latter part of 2009 in recovery.

But for some, "the 2005 bubble people," one Realtor calls them, the nightmare continues.

Florida bumped California in November to earn the No. 2 rank nationally for the rate of foreclosures, with one in every 165 homes in danger of becoming bank-owned, according to a report to be released today by Irvine, Calif.-based RealtyTrac.

It bucked the national trend, which has seen four months of foreclosure decreases, including an 8 percent drop in November compared with October.

Statewide, Florida foreclosures increased 2 percent in November over October, and about 8 percent compared with the same time in 2008.

"There is a lot of property that sold in '03, '04, '05, and they are all upside down and if people lose their jobs, they are going to hurt," said Douglas Rill, owner of Century 21 America's Choice Realty in West Palm Beach. "Until that big lump walks through the market, it's going to be an albatross, a damper, an anchor on the full rebound."

In Palm Beach County, 3,321 foreclosure filings were recorded in November, nearly identical to October, but a 26 percent increase over 2008.

Treasure Coast counties saw foreclosure decreases in month-to-month and annual filings, with Martin County down 13 percent compared with November 2008 and St. Lucie dropping 32 percent.

Nationally, 306,627 homes had foreclosure filings in November. Nearly 53,000 of them, or one in six, were in Florida. Nevada ranked worst nationally in November, with one in 119 homes with a foreclosure filing.

Analysts said the national trend in the reduction of foreclosures can be attributed to an increase in banks processing short sales, the first-time home buyer tax credit, which was expanded and extended through April, and loan modification efforts under the federal Making Home Affordable Program.

Today, the Treasury Department releases its November loan modification report.

In October, 82,614 Florida loans were in a trial modification or had been permanently reduced.

Kathryn Lomax's loan on the Royal Palm Beach home she bought in 2005 was one of them. She said she's been working to get a modification since February.

"My husband's company downsized in January. They took his company vehicle, cut his pay, so we requested assistance."

But RealtyTrac experts warn that loan modifications may be a temporary fix.

" Modification is going to help a portion of people avoid foreclosure, but in over half of the cases, it's just delaying the inevitable," said RealtyTrac spokesman Daren Blomquist.

Still, it has cut this year's foreclosure estimates .

RealtyTrac originally forecast there would be 1.4 million properties nationwide in foreclosure at the end of September. The number was 940,000.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/florida-jumps-to-no-2-spot-for-number-112349.html

[Lil B]

Florida's Foreclosure Backlog Among Nation's Worst

By Kimberly Miller
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
March 17, 2010

A crushing backlog of foreclosure cases has pushed Florida's courts to request a one-time payment of $9.6 million to help purge the system and quicken a market recovery.

The Florida State Courts Administration estimates 500,000 property foreclosures are pending, including 55,000 in Palm Beach County.

Without additional resources to clear the cases, judges fear the bottleneck will continue to drag down home values, which aren't expected to stabilize until the glut of foreclosures moves through the system.

It's routine in Florida for foreclosures to take more than a year to settle, leaving deteriorating homes, unpaid association fees, and families facing uncertain futures.

"We want to be good partners in the economic recovery, not part of the problem," said Peter Blanc, chief judge of the 15th Judicial Circuit Court in Palm Beach County. "We want to get properties through the courts and back onto the market. The numbers are just overwhelming."

A Barclays Capital report last week found Florida has one of the highest foreclosure backlogs nationally, even singling out South Florida — Miami-Dade, Broward and Palm Beach counties — saying it is "remarkable" that the area may only be 18 percent finished with liquidating its delinquent property loans through foreclosure.

Florida's lawmakers are considering the court's appeal for more money, which would come from the State Courts Revenue Trust Fund, and pay for additional case managers and retired senior judges.

Court Administrator Lisa Goodner said the Senate's proposed 2010-2011 budget includes the full request, while the House's proposal has $1 million set aside.

The money would be doled out to district circuit courts based on their foreclosure case loads.

"They'll be more cases coming in while we're working on this, and there just doesn't seem to be any relief in sight," Goodner said.

Some housing analysts predict another wave of foreclosures this year as unemployment persists and interest-only and adjustable rate mortgages awarded in 2005 reset.

And the courts aren't the only ones looking for ways to speed the foreclosure process.

Two bills (HB 1523, SB 2270) would allow lenders to foreclose on properties without going through the courts.

According to RealtyTrac, a housing information provider in Irvine, Calif., 30 states allow non-judicial foreclosures.

The bills, sponsored in the House by Tom Grady, R-Naples, and in the Senate by Mike Bennett, R-Bradenton, are not identical, but are generally aimed at allowing lenders to skip legal proceedings unless the borrower requests that the foreclosure goes through the courts.

The lender must also meet with a borrower, if requested, and the borrower will not be liable for the unpaid portion of the loan if he or she acts in good faith during the non-judicial foreclosure. Under the proposal, a foreclosure could occur in as little as 90-days.

"The condo associations aren't being paid, the homes are falling apart, and people are looking at us for a solution," said Anthony DiMarco, executive vice president of government affairs for the Florida Bankers Association, which spearheaded the legislation.

In the House staff analysis, writers of the bill note many foreclosures are uncontested by the borrower, but can still get caught up in the legal logjam.

Homeowner advocates say the proposals strip the borrower of due process.

"The average homeowner has no clue what to do in this process, now, all of a sudden, they aren't even getting the process," said Coral Gables real estate attorney Rashmi Airan-Pace.

Victor Tobin, chief judge of the 17th judicial circuit court in Broward County, said the legislation may have state constitutional conflicts.

Chief Judge Blanc said he doesn't want to give up due process for the sake of "expediency."

Both support the $9.6 million budget request.

"It's cataclysmic, to be honest with you," Tobin said about Florida's foreclosure crisis. "It's a catastrophe for everyone."

Foreclosure court backlog

Miami-Dade County, 80,100
Palm Beach County, 55,000
Broward County, 36,880
St. Lucie County, 11,220
Martin County, 2,530

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/floridas-foreclosure-backlog-among-nations-worst-380990.html

[Carl]

The banks are in no hurry to clear this up, since the federal
government is paying them for each foreclosure. In fact, the
"guarantee" money that was supposed to encourage the
banks to work with their customers is actually an incentive
to ignore the customer, since the banks get fed money AND
the house if the borrower goes into default.

Talk about shooting oneself in the foot.

[Kerry]

Without additional resources to clear the cases, judges fear the bottleneck will continue to drag down home values, which aren't expected to stabilize until the glut of foreclosures moves through the system.

HUH?  Actually they HAVE stabilized.  They're where they were before the "stupid time" and now, since nothing was done to take advantage of the temporary windfall, being right back to where we started shouldn't surprise anyone.

[Carl]

Stabilized, perhaps, but still artificially depressed.

Home prices should be somewhere in the vicinity of what it
costs to replace the house, but they are maybe half of that.

A home that costs $300K to build is selling (used) for $150K.

[Kerry]

Nope.  If that were true then the costs are still inflated and I can tell you the material and labor costs have dropped just as dramatically.  There are dramatic changes on some properties but in general the material and labor costs are in line with the actual value today.  I believe you'll find that labor and materiel costs are market driven also.

[Carl]

My homeowner's insurance company disagrees with your
assessment. They use replacement cost tables, and they
tell me these tables are up to date. They tell me my house
would cost $309K to replace, although its market value is
under $150K including the uninsured land.

I checked with Citizen's and their replacement cost was
even higher. Please send them your tables - I could sure
use the relief from the rates that this cost is based on.

[Kerry]

Insurance companies tables???  Glad we're using valid numbers.  If we bothered to, I'll betcha the numbers we'd wind up with from a builder will be no where near the insurance numbers.  Those are at best, post hurricane numbers.  They're still raking in millions while they can and before they walk away after a hurricane they want to "create" as much wealth as they can.

[Carl]

So then, you think they would lie to us?
Or use phony numbers just to jack up our rates?

You probably think the government isn't really
here to help us, either.

[Kerry]

Lie to us????  Yo "Coppertop" you're just an ATM for EVERYONE and EVERYTHING doncha know????

[Carl]

http://media.living.net/statistics/2010/Feb%202010%20home%20chart.pdf


The numbers for February are now out, and I'm so pleased
to tell you all this:

I purchased my house here in PSL in April 1999, and it is
now worth less than what I paid for it. I got it at a pretty
good deal, too, back when real estate prices were
"depressed". Ha ha ha.

PSL real estate is now worth 36% of the value quoted back
at the peak, September 2005. If we keep this up, we can
maybe brag about losing 2/3rds of our value. After that,
the sky's the limit, folks - let's go for 3/4ths!!

[Kerry]

Yep!  We bought our lot for $14,900 in 2003 which was $600 less than the previous owners paid TEN YEARS prior.  It's now down to $14,400?  I said long ago that we would decline back to levels previous to the "Do ya wanna be a city?" days and it looks like I was wrong, we've declined past that.

[Carl]

Yes, just slightly under what it was in 1999, but it is a
"negative gain". Ha. Whenever someone uses two words
to describe one word (loss), it's what you call a euphemism.

Here's another one: This year's negative gain will be less
lossy than last year's. Figure another 10-15% decline in
values. Eventually my home will be worth what I paid for
it had I set it on fire the same day.

The recession is bad, but not this bad. This is what happens
when bad news hits a town so mis-managed and unprepared
to deal with anything not in the "big city" game plan.

[ladycaroline]

Yep!  We bought our lot for $14,900 in 2003 which was $600 less than the previous owners paid TEN YEARS prior.  It's now down to $14,400?  I said long ago that we would decline back to levels previous to the "Do ya wanna be a city?" days and it looks like I was wrong, we've declined past that.

When I moved here in 1996 lot were about 5 grand...so it isnt quite as bad as the last huge buyers market...but it    is getting close.

[santino]

http://www.paslc.org/prc.asp?prclid=342054007780002

1/4 ac lot on California, 7,000

Like horses and golf, Tesoro Club is having a fire sale on lots.

.36 ac for 15,000 courtesy of BOA.

http://www.paslc.org/prc.asp?prclid=442180000840003

Demand will never again trump supply in PSL.

The only reason for a meager increase in sales is dropping  prices. We will see 5 grand lots by the end of the year.

Thanks Carl for the chart that shows PSL having the largest drop in the Median Sales Price in Florida.

[Lil B]

New-Home Sales Plunge 33 pct with Tax Credits Gone

By ALAN ZIBEL
The Associated Press
June 23, 2010

WASHINGTON — Sales of new homes collapsed in May, sinking 33 percent to the lowest level on record as potential buyers stopped shopping for homes once they could no longer receive government tax credits.

The bleak report from the Commerce Department is the first sign of how the end of federal tax credits could weigh on the nation's housing market.

The credits expired April 30. That's when a new-home buyer would have had to sign a contract to qualify.

"We fear that the appetite to buy a home has disappeared alongside the tax credit," Paul Dales, U.S. economist with Capital Economics," wrote in a note. "After all, unemployment remains high, job security is low and credit conditions are tight."

New-home sales in May fell from April to a seasonally adjusted annual sales pace of 300,000, the government said Wednesday. That was the slowest sales pace on records dating back to 1963. And it's the largest monthly drop on record. Sales have now sunk 78 percent from their peak in July 2005.

Analysts were startled by the depth of the sales drop.

"We all knew there would be a housing hangover from the expiration of the tax credit," wrote Mike Larson, real estate and interest rate analyst at Weiss Research. "But this decline takes your breath away."

Economists surveyed by Thomson Reuters had expected a May sales pace of 410,000. April's sales pace was revised downward to 446,000.

The government offered an $8,000 credit for first-time buyers. Current homeowners who buy and move into another property could receive up to $6,500.

New-home sales fell nationwide from April's levels. They dropped 53 percent from a month earlier in the West and 33 percent in the Northeast. Sales in the South dropped 25 percent. The Midwest posted a 24 percent decline.

Builders have sharply scaled back construction in the face of a severe housing market bust. The number of new homes up for sale in March fell 0.5 percent to 213,000, the lowest level in nearly 40 years. But due to the sluggish sales pace in May, it would still take 8.5 months to exhaust that supply, above a healthy level of about six months.

The median sales price in May was $200,900. That was down 9.6 percent from a year earlier and down 1 percent from April.

New-homes sales made up about 7 percent of the housing market last year. That's down from about 15 percent before the bust.

The drop in new-home sales means fewer jobs in the construction industry, which normally powers economic recoveries but has remained lackluster this time.

Each new home built creates, on average, the equivalent of three jobs for a year and generates about $90,000 in taxes paid to local and federal authorities, according to the National Association of Home Builders. The impact is felt across multiple industries, from makers of faucets and dishwashers to lumber yards.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/new-home-sales-plunge-33-percent-with-tax-764060.html?cxntcid=breaking_news

[Carl]

Once again this area bucks the trend. ---> http://media.living.net/statistics/2010/May%202010%20home%20chart.pdf


Fort Pierce-Port St. Lucie sales are UP 6% over this month last year, and:

FOR THE FIRST TIME IN 48 MONTHS!!

The median price has increased, 3%.


The bad news is the median price is still below what empty
lots sold for at the peak. The good news is the trend has
shown the first positive sign that the ever-decreasing
values may have truly bottomed out.

Here is the 12-month rolling average since 1999:

[Carl]

Guess when/what year this headline was seen?

Reuters - Sales of new U.S. single-family homes rebounded
strongly in June from the prior month's record low, driving
the number of houses on the market to its lowest level in
nearly 42 years.


Answer: July 2010. Now. It doesn't sound right to me.
There must be a tremendous number of houses NOT on
the market that could or should be.

[Kerry]

I believe there are two reasons I can think of.  One, the banks are swamped with foreclosures and can't put them on the market fast enough or maybe too fast will reflect badly on them and two, the amount of people with bad credit.  I also believe their president and his crony's are setting up fannie and freddie to fail again in an effort to improve the market.

[Carl]

Well, I think homes that are in an active foreclosure process
are OFF the market and are not counted as inventory.  I also
think homes are being snapped up by those for whom credit
and/or qualifications are not an issue. Let's face it, prices are
so below value that people who have cash on the sidelines are
ready to start investing in real estate again. Buy low, sell high.

Hoo boy can you buy low these days....

[Sage1949]

Yeah ...i hear ya!  We brought in 2006 June....I'll never forget how we were fearful of the "KIDS" we brought from ...who wanted to sell for 275 and we offered 230....They took it with big grins on their faces...while we were sweating they would want to split the baby.  Those kids...good for them....they brought the place for 85g and with a bunch of improvements....sold it to us YANKEE suckers!  That's ok...up north our place would have been 350-375.   
And yes, we have had clients of ours come to Florida and snap up some real estate.  One snapped up a place that was selling for 1.5mil...he purchased...house decor, window treatements, furniture, etc & all for 675g.   Yeah if you have the moolah.....(dreaming)....LOL

[Carl]

Nope - don't have the moolah. I am still waiting for a rich
uncle I don't even know about to die and leave me awash
in cash.

[Lil B]

South Florida Foreclosures Worst in U.S. Metro Areas

By Jeff Ostrowski
Palm Beach Post Staff Writer
July 29, 2010

In another dubious distinction for the region's battered real estate market, South Florida saw more foreclosures in the first half of 2010 than any other metro area in the nation.

The three-county region, which stretches from Homestead to Jupiter, had 94,466 foreclosure filings from January through June, research firm RealtyTrac said Thursday. South Florida eclipsed larger markets such as Los Angeles, Chicago and New York, and the area easily outpaced foreclosure hotbeds Phoenix, Las Vegas and Detroit.

In another staggering statistic, South Florida accounted for nearly 6 percent of the foreclosures filed nationally in the first half of the year. Of the 1.65 million foreclosures filed nationwide, 94,466 were in South Florida.

The grim figures came as little surprise to Jack McCabe, a real estate economist in Deerfield Beach. He blames the region's unhealthy combination of overbuilding, rampant speculation, ubiquitous mortgage fraud and high unemployment.

McCabe sees little reason to think the flood of foreclosures will recede.

"We're going to continue to see this very high level of foreclosure activity in South Florida," McCabe said. "It wouldn't be surprising to see us remain at the top of this ranking, or at least in the top three, through the end of 2011."

The high rate of defaults is bad news for the region's home values. More foreclosures mean more downward pressure on prices, which means more borrowers falling deeper underwater.

"It is a vicious cycle," said Bill Pittenger, a real estate economist in Orlando.

Another wild card: So-called strategic defaults by borrowers who can afford to pay but don't see the point.

"They're willing to take the hit on the credit because they think they're throwing good money after bad and they're never going to recover," Pittenger said.

In many cases, those homeowners are right, Pittenger said. It's unlikely home prices will return to boom-time levels in the near future.

Although South Florida ranked No. 1 in the number of foreclosures, it ranked No. 10 in the rate of foreclosures, with 3.9 percent of homes in default.

Las Vegas topped that list, with 6.6 percent of homes in foreclosure, followed by Cape Coral-Fort Myers, where 5 percent of homes received foreclosure filings.

The Treasure Coast, with 3.1 percent of properties in foreclosure, ranked 16th.

Florida metro areas accounted for nine of the 20 markets with the highest foreclosure rates.

http://www.palmbeachpost.com/money/real-estate/south-florida-foreclosures-worst-in-u-s-metro-831195.html

[Huggs]

The Treasure Coast, with 3.1 percent of properties in foreclosure, ranked 16th.

At least we got out of the top 10 this time around. 

[Kerry]

Figures lie and liars figure.  We're still there nothing's changed.

[Sage1949]

Mr. Kerry....I believe that saying is "Figures don't lie, but LIARS sure can figure."   

[Rod Bender]

Isn't that the same thing? 

[Carl]

When I first moved here, there was a street down the ways
a bit that only had one family living on it. Today, there's now
... just one family living on it. Twelve more houses though.